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Author: DEROBS

  • Large language model-generated patterns for epidemiological modeling: a multi-benchmark evaluation framework

    Large language model-generated patterns for epidemiological modeling: a multi-benchmark evaluation framework

    Large language model-generated patterns for epidemiological modeling: a multi-benchmark evaluation framework

    arXiv:2610.15994v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Representing individual-level behavioral heterogeneity is challenging in epidemiological modeling, particularly when empirical behavioral data are sparse. We assess the potential of large language model (LLM)-generated behavioral outputs in addressing this challenge, using hepatitis C virus-related behaviors among people who inject drugs as a case study. Correspondence with epidemiological patterns was evaluated using external benchmarks: literature-informed association directions, correlations from an agent-based model (ABM), and survey associations. Across three LLMs, unconditional directional recovery across 28 retained literature-informed associations was 46-68%, compared with 82-93% agreement when LLMs were directly asked to classify the same associations. Mean absolute differences from ABM and survey correlation patterns were 0.11-0.13 and 0.15-0.18, respectively. Together, these findings show partial alignment between LLM-generated behavioral relationships and epidemiological evidence, despite higher knowledge-probe agreement. More systematic evaluation is needed before incorporating LLM-generated behavioral outputs into epidemiological models that simulate transmission dynamics.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15994

  • ADAPT: Audio-Depth Action Planning with Transition-Aware Rewards for Lights-Out Industrial Navigation

    ADAPT: Audio-Depth Action Planning with Transition-Aware Rewards for Lights-Out Industrial Navigation

    ADAPT: Audio-Depth Action Planning with Transition-Aware Rewards for Lights-Out Industrial Navigation

    arXiv:2610.15956v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vision-language-action models for embodied navigation typically rely on RGB observations, limiting their applicability in lights-out industrial environments where visible illumination may be unavailable. We study illumination-independent navigation using spatial audio for target localization and depth for obstacle-aware geometry. To support this setting, we introduce DarkNav-Bench, a benchmark with 24 industrial scenes and four progressively challenging acoustic conditions. We further propose ADAPT, an audio-depth action-planning framework equipped with spatial-audio perception and optimized for closed-loop navigation through reinforcement learning (RL). Our key RL contribution, transition-aware reward shaping (TARS), defines a pose-aware shortest-action potential over a position-heading graph. Unlike conventional geodesic-progress rewards, TARS accounts for both feasible movements and in-place rotations, providing action-consistent feedback for policy optimization. Experiments show that ADAPT consistently outperforms training-based navigation baselines and zero-shot multimodal models on both seen and unseen scenes. On unseen environments, it achieves 90.6% success under Clean conditions and retains 60.0% success under the most challenging Localized Noise setting. These results demonstrate the potential of spatial audio and depth as complementary modalities for reliable RGB-free navigation in lights-out industrial environments.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15956

  • Small but Mighty: Test Suites as Improvement Signals for Self-Evolving Agents

    Small but Mighty: Test Suites as Improvement Signals for Self-Evolving Agents

    Small but Mighty: Test Suites as Improvement Signals for Self-Evolving Agents

    arXiv:2610.15964v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A self-evolving agent rewrites its own harness and must decide which rewrites to keep, so its improvement signal is the check a rewrite has to pass. Verifying a rewrite by agent rollout is expensive and subjective, while executable checks such as the repository's own tests are too sparse to catch behavior-changing rewrites, rejecting only a quarter of them. We instead take test feedback as the executable signal, and search for test suites that are both small and strong with a quality-diversity evolutionary algorithm, so that the signal is dense and informative. TeSearch treats suite size as a behavior descriptor, so that quality is pursued at every size and a small, strong suite is reachable, and learns a transition kernel during the search that denoises the LLM as an actuator on that descriptor. Across 129 real-world modules and three backbones, TeSearch delivers the highest-quality suites of any method compared, LLM-driven evolutionary search included, and the smallest of any LLM-based one. Used as the improvement signal of a self-evolving agent, it rejects 59.9% of behavior-changing rewrites against 25.3% for the repository's tests, at a 4.0% false-alarm rate and 3.5 s per decision. The code and data are available at https://github.com/ccsnow127/TeSearch.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15964

  • PopGen: Generating Semantically Diverse Populations for Zero-Shot Coordination

    PopGen: Generating Semantically Diverse Populations for Zero-Shot Coordination

    PopGen: Generating Semantically Diverse Populations for Zero-Shot Coordination

    arXiv:2610.15969v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In multi-agent reinforcement learning, exposing a cooperator to partners with diverse strategies during training is key to better collaboration at test time. However, existing methods typically rely on trajectory-level proxies to measure diversity, which may label two distinct trajectories of the same strategy as diverse. Instead, our key insight is to leverage LLMs' ability to describe behaviorally distinct agents in environments, similar to how humans can recognize high-level strategies. To this end, we introduce PopGen, a framework that synthesizes semantically diverse agents from scratch using LLMs. PopGen first generates a diverse set of textual descriptions of agent behaviors, then translates each behavior into a code policy that can be executed within the environment. We show that cooperators trained against PopGen populations achieve robust zero-shot cooperation with unseen partners, outperforming population-play baselines across four collaborative environments. We further show that semantic diversity scales with PopGen population size, improving the cooperator's worst-case performance, and we identify design choices that preserve population quality while maximizing diversity. Our code is available at https://github.com/labicon/PopGen.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15969

  • Multi-Horizon Explainable Queue Forecasting and Resource-Aware Decision Support for Intelligent Border Control Using LightGBM

    Multi-Horizon Explainable Queue Forecasting and Resource-Aware Decision Support for Intelligent Border Control Using LightGBM

    arXiv:2610.15930v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Border crossing points are stochastic service systems in which traffic demand, traveler categories, registration status, inspection requirements, staffing, and lane availability interact on multiple time scales. This paper extends an earlier multimodal queue-management framework by introducing an implementation-oriented, multi-horizon forecasting and decision-support architecture based on Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) models. In contrast to a single forecasting block, the proposed approach constructs horizon-specific regressors for 15, 30, 60, and 120 min forecasts and jointly estimates future waiting time and queue lengths. The models operate on temporally lagged traffic, service, density, and queue features, while an operational layer incorporates lane compatibility, officer availability, possibly degraded resources, traveler category, preregistration information, and human-approval constraints. Quantile LightGBM models provide 95\% prediction intervals for waiting-time forecasts. Beyond prediction, the framework produces machine-readable recommendations, alerts, aggregate key performance indicators, confidence information, and integration outputs suitable for border resource-management and decision-support systems. The results establish a reproducible synthetic-data baseline and a practical interface for subsequent validation with operational border-crossing data.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15930

  • The Anatomy of a Blind Spot: What an LLM Judge Must Be Shown, and How Much

    The Anatomy of a Blind Spot: What an LLM Judge Must Be Shown, and How Much

    arXiv:2610.15938v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluation of text generated by large language models (LLMs) is increasingly delegated to LLMs acting as judges, yet what such a judge must be shown remains unresolved. We treat a judge whose reports are acted on as a regulator, in the sense of cybernetics, and ask what it must be shown, how much, in what form, and what its reports must get right. On seven public benchmarks we varied only what the judge was shown. Across three judges whose prices differ 10- to 17-fold, what the judge was shown mattered more than which judge it was. When a system revised its answers on feedback from a judge denied the material they had to respect, it ended below its starting point on instruction following and question answering. On instruction following the loss grew with each round, and it persisted when the judge saw the user's request but not the constraints and with a second judge family. On news summarisation, a correct reference summary beside the source undid most of the source's contribution, whereas on single-answer questions a reference helped. About a tenth of the source did almost all of its work, and a small entailment graph matched an LLM judge at finding errors in grounded text. We committed 83 testable clauses before running; of the 81 that ran, 32 met their bar and 50 went in the predicted direction, and most quantitative predictions from the theory failed. We report every shortfall and derive design rules tied to measured effects.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15938

  • Vision: “What Don’t I Know About User’s Preferences?” How Uncertainty Estimation Improves Proactive Assistant Alignment

    Vision: “What Don’t I Know About User’s Preferences?” How Uncertainty Estimation Improves Proactive Assistant Alignment

    Vision: "What Don't I Know About User's Preferences?" How Uncertainty Estimation Improves Proactive Assistant Alignment

    arXiv:2610.15948v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Proactive Smart Assistants (PSAs) increasingly use general knowledge, learned patterns from group-level data, patterns from individual user's data, and recent sensor observations to anticipate which action a user may prefer. Existing systems typically select actions from predicted user preference likelihoods, but these likelihoods alone do not reveal how reliable the prediction is, which evidence supports it, or why ambiguity remains. In this vision paper, we argue that uncertainty estimation can provide this missing information and substantially change appropriate downstream behavior. Using the example of a home assistant, we introduce the questions that uncertainty estimation aims to answer, i.e. how sure is the assistant about the predicted preference likelihood, whether the confidence come from group-level assumptions or individual's data, and whether likelihood ambiguity reflect the user's intrinsic preference variability or insufficient data for the particular situation. We further introduce uncertainty estimation applications in neighboring domains, such as human trajectory prediction, personalized activity recognition, information-collection, and model-based control. Finally, we draw on insights from neighboring domains to envision how future uncertainty-aware proactive assistants may address key challenges in proactive interaction.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15948

  • RetryBench: Separating Retry Permission from Recovery Outcomes in GPT Tool Use

    RetryBench: Separating Retry Permission from Recovery Outcomes in GPT Tool Use

    arXiv:2610.15884v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: False retry permission (FRP) occurs when an agent retries a timed-out tool call without support from the visible contract. RetryBench separates this error from realized recovery. Successful protected recovery does not imply reliable rejection of unsupported retries. In a 720-response key control, valid keys usually enabled safe progress, but offered changed keys elicited unsupported retries in Sol (1/80), Terra (55/80), and Luna (60/80). A later 240-response control removed the candidate and required models to supply a key. Luna still made 8/80 unsupported dispatches; Sol and Terra made none in 80 responses each. Accepting a displayed bad key therefore cannot explain all observed errors, although changed output requirements and conditions preclude a pure display-effect comparison. Removing the weak-contract label increased retries in Sol and Terra's coded-action conditions in a six-endpoint study. A separate 1,536-response canonical-action block also found a positive Terra contrast (115/128 versus 124/128 retries), concentrated in two task/order conditions; the other five contrasts remained unresolved after multiplicity correction. An explicit-contract cue control elicited deferral in all 762 returned responses, leaving recovery unresolved. These results support reporting permission and recovery together across declared interface variants. The evidence covers four purposive tasks, fixed GPT endpoints, and one recovery decision; it identifies neither internal mechanisms nor episode-level safety.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15884

  • Comparative Study of Canvas- and Coordinate-Based Geometry-Conditioned Neural Networks for Real-Time Prediction of Indoor Environments with Varying Room Dimensions

    Comparative Study of Canvas- and Coordinate-Based Geometry-Conditioned Neural Networks for Real-Time Prediction of Indoor Environments with Varying Room Dimensions

    arXiv:2610.15885v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is computationally expensive for iterative building design. Deep learning surrogates offer faster predictions, but generalization across varying room dimensions remains challenging. This study compares two geometry-conditioned neural network surrogate models for rapid indoor airflow and temperature field prediction under varying room sizes. During the architectural design stage, this method is relevant for real-time assessment of whether conditioned supply air will effectively provide fresh and cool air throughout rooms with varying heights and lengths. The canvas-based neural network (CaNN) explicitly encodes room size by preserving different occupied regions within a fixed canvas, whereas the coordinate-based neural network (CoNN) uses normalized coordinate channels. Both employ U-Net autoencoders to separately predict airflow and temperature fields. Evaluation uses simplified rooms with varying heights and lengths as a controlled benchmark. The results show that CaNN achieves higher agreement with CFD results than CoNN, demonstrating its potential to support performance-driven building design.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15885

  • LURE: a Phase-Labelled Synthetic Corpus of Online-Grooming Exchanges

    LURE: a Phase-Labelled Synthetic Corpus of Online-Grooming Exchanges

    arXiv:2610.15908v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Phase-annotated conversational data is essential for studying the progression of online grooming of minors and for developing early warning tools. However, the only publicly available source (i.e., Perverted-Justice archive, which contains a subset coded using ChatCoder) is small, outdated, and frozen. We present a synthetic corpus of groomer-victim exchanges, generated using a retrieval-augmented pipeline running on institutional hardware. This pipeline uses an openly available, eight-billion-parameter, refusal-ablated language model. The corpus was created using the five stages of the responsible-generation protocol for synthetic datasets: ontology-driven design based on the ChatCoder luring-communication scheme (eight communicative tags mapped onto four grooming phases); multi-model prompt testing; human-in-the-loop supervision; semantic and feature-level validation; and modality-aware documentation. The released corpus contains 2,121 unique exchanges across seven tags and four phases, each accompanied by a Plutchik emotion field. Validation quantifies the integrity and lexical profile of the corpus, as well as the reproduction of real seed lines, in-domain label recoverability (tag accuracy: 0.85; phase accuracy: 0.93) and its transfer to real ChatCoder offender lines, which were coded automatically at the eight-tag level (31,640 lines) and by human coders at the three-construct level (10,876 posts). Accuracy was measured for lexical and sentence-embedding features, while a real-versus-synthetic discriminator was able to separate the two domains with 91% accuracy. The scope of the corpus includes controlled, phase-conditioned experimentation, pipeline development and augmentation alongside real data and awareness material. The corpus, its datasheet and the audit code are released with vetted access.

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    Source: arXiv
    Original article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15908